Posted on February 20, 2015

A new outlook for world energy issued here by ExxonMobil Qatar expects global energy demand to rise around 35 per cent from year 2010 to 2040, and China plus India will spur half of this growth. Besides the two Asian giants, ten key countries - Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Iran South Africa, Nigeria, Thailand, Egypt, Mexico and Turkey, will fuel demand for energy.

The ExxonMobil report predicts natural gas to surpass coal as the second-largest fuel source. World's demand for natural gas will rise by 215 billion cubic feet per day over the 2040 period. Oil and natural gas will meet around 60 per cent of the demand for energy. The report anticipates global growth for electricity consumption to jump by 90 per cent up to 2040. The need for more power will push around half the growth in demand for natural gas. Developing countries will consume a large portion of this jump in demand for power. The report reasons better living standards for the projected growth in electricity consumption. 

ExxonMobil expects fuel input to power generation to increase more than 50 per cent, faster than any other sector up to 2040. The fillip side of this is awareness campaigns and responsible consumption globally will help generate energy saving around 500 quadrillion BTUs (British Thermal Units) in 2040. By 2040, around 65 percent of the world's recoverable crude and condensate resource will have yet to be produced. Energy sources will continue to evolve and diversify, driven by changes in technology, consumer needs, and public policies.

The report expects significant production gains in North America, Latin America, and the Middle East. With production rising and demand falling, North America will shift from a significant crude oil importer to a fairly balanced position by 2030. Rapid urbanisation will spur industrial energy demand globally. The ExxonMobil report expects the demand to rise by one-third up to 2030. Production requirements of the energy industry accounted for around 20 per cent of industrial energy demand in 2010. This share is declining as industry takes steps improve production efficiency. 

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Carbon dioxide emissions levels will drop through 2040 as industries shift away from coal to natural gas and electricity usage. Demand for electricity by residential and commercial segment will rise close to 90 per cent as the global population will have two billion more people, the report says. The total number of households in the world will rise 50 per cent, from 1.9 billion in 2010 to 2.8 billion by 2040. Demand for power by commercial establishments will rise by around 50 per cent. 

Regarding outlook for transport sector, the report expects diesel and jet fuel demand to rise 75 per cent from 2010 to 2040. Light-duty vehicles will more than double from 800 million in 2010 to around 1.78 billion in 2040. By 2040, hybrid vehicles will account around 35 per cent of light-duty vehicles globally. The average fuel efficiency of these vehicles will reach around 5.1 litres per 100 kms compared to 9.8 litres per 100 kms in 2010. Energy demand for surface commercial transport will rise 70 per cent up to 2040. Natural gas accounted for one per cent of all transport fuels in 2010. This share will rise to five per cent by 2040.

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