Posted on December 31, 2014

Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) has released the preliminary estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current and constant prices for the third quarter (Q3) of 2014. The estimates have been produced by using the data collected through the Quarterly Economic Indicator Survey and from other source agencies.

  • Nominal GDP [GDP at current prices] estimate of Q3, 2014 [193.08 Bn QR] over Q3, 2013 GDP estimate [185.43 Bn QR] increases by 4.1%.
  • Real GDP [GDP at constant (2004) prices] growth is up by 6.0% in the Q3, 2014 over Q3, 2013 GDP estimate.

Quarterly GDP by economic [qatarisbooming.com].jpg

Q3, 2014 Nominal & Real GDP Estimates

The quarterly GDP at current prices in the Q3, 2014 is estimated at 193.08 Bn QR. This represents an increase of 4.1% compared to the estimate of Q3,  2013 placed at 185.43 Bn QR. Compared to the previous quarter [Q2, 2014] estimate of 189.65 Bn QR, an increase of 1.8% has been noticed. The quarterly GDP in Q3, 2014, at constant (2004) prices [97.51 Bn QR] has registered a [Y-o-Y] growth of 6.0%over the estimate of Q3, 2013 [91.98 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter [Q2, 2014] estimate of 93.86 Bn QR, there has been a growth of 3.9%.

Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas)

The nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) estimate of this sector in Q3, 2014 has been 95.26 Bn QR, which shows  a decline of 4.3% over the estimate of Q3, 2013, placed at 99.53 Bn QR. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimate, there has been a decline of 1.5% in the GVA of this sector. The real GVA of this sector in Q3, 2014 [36.33 Bn QR], shows a fall of 2.8% over the estimate of Q3, 2013 [37.38 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimate, a growth of 1.3% has been seen in this quarter.

The receding crude oil production and some maintenance shutdowns in Gas plants primarily explain the Y-o-Y fall in the production volume of this sector. Besides this, the reduction in international price levels of crude oil and gases in this quarter has led to a sharper decline in nominal GVA of this sector.

Non-Mining and Quarrying

The nominal GVA estimate of these sectors in the Q3, 2014 has been placed at 97.82 Bn QR, which shows an increase of 13.9% over the estimate of Q3, 2013 [85.90 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimate, there has been an increase of 5.3% in the GVA of these sectors. The real GVA of these sectors in Q3, 2014, totaled 61.17 Bn QR, which shows a growth of 12% over the GVA [54.60 Bn QR] estimated in the corresponding quarter Q3, 2013. The Q-o-Q growth of these sectors is 5.5%.

The Y-o-Ygrowth in the Q3, 2014 is the result of double digit rise seen mainly in electricity, construction, trading, transport & communication, financial sectors and domestic services.The 7% jump in the country’s population in Q3, 2014 is another factor in contributing such a growth. Details of the sectoral level, preliminary nominal and real GVA estimates in Q3 and  Q2 of 2014 and Q3, 2013 are available in the Tables 1 and 2. An analysis by major industry groups, comparing the performance in Q3 of 2014 with the corresponding quarter (Q3) in 2013 [Y-o-Y Basis] and with second quarter (Q2) [Q-o-Q basis] of 2014 is given in the following paragraphs.

Manufacturing

The nominal GVA of manufacturing sector in Q3, 2014 is estimated at 20.16 Bn QR showing an increase of 9% over the estimate of Q3, 2013 [18.49 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimate, an increase of 3.7% is noted. The real GVA of this sector is estimated at 8.87 Bn QR in Q3, 2014 showing a growth of 7.3% over the estimate [8.26 Bn QR]of corresponding quarter [Q3] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) GVA of this sector, there has been a growth of 3.9%.

The higher volumes of production of Petrochemicals, fertilizers, basic iron & steel products and other non-metallic mineral products have led this growth in the manufacturing sector.

Construction

The nominal GVA estimate of the construction at 10.77 Bn QR in Q3, 2014 shows an increase of 22.9% when compared to the estimate of corresponding quarter [Q3] of 2013 [8.77 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter, an increase of 2.1% has been seen. The real GVA of the construction sector at 12.37 Bn QR in Q3, 2014,  shows a growth of 18.5% when compared to the GVA estimate [10.44 Bn QR] of the corresponding quarter [Q3] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter, a growth of 1% has been registered.

The Y-o-Y double digit growth is primarily due to rising production volume seen in this quarter. Major public investments in this sector especially in the infrastructure related projects continue to impact the growth in this sector.

Trade, Hotel and Restaurants

The nominal GVA of this group is estimated at 14.07 Bn QR in Q3 of 2014 registering an increase of 14.6% over the GVA estimate [12.28 Bn QR] of the corresponding quarter [Q3] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimates, there has been an increase of 21.7%. The real GVA of this sector is estimated at 9.05 Bn QR in Q3, 2014, recording a growth of 13.7% over the GVA estimate [7.96 Bn QR] of the corresponding quarter [Q3] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) GVA estimate of 7.48 Bn QR, there has been a growth of 20.9% in this sector.

This double digit rise in this group during Q3, 2014 has resulted from the high trading and hospitality activities seen in the Ramadan period, a seasonal phenomenon.Rising population is another factor of high growth.

Transport and Communication

This sector generated a nominal value addition of 7.26 Bn QR in Q3, 2014 against 6.45 Bn QR in Q3, 2013 showing a rise of 12.6%. Compared to the previous quarter[Q2, 2014], an increase of 11.4% in the GVA estimate has been noticed in this group. Real value addition in this sector has been 6.85 Bn QR in Q3, 2014 as against 6.20 Bn QR estimated in Q3, 2013. It shows a growth of 10.5%. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimates; the GVA estimate has grown by 11.7%. Both transport and communication services have shown growth both on [Y-o-Y] and [Q-o-Q] basis.

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services

The nominal GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 26.95 Bn QR in Q3 of 2014, showing an increase of 19.9%, (primarily due to rise in banking and real estate sectors) when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q3, 2013) estimate of 22.48 Bn QR. However, compared to the previous quarter, Q2 of 2014, a decrease  of 1.8% in the GVA estimate has been recorded. The real GVA of this group is estimated at 12.82 Bn QR in Q3, 2014, showing a growth of 13.7% when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q3) estimate of 11.28 Bn QR in 2013. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014), a fall of 1.9% in the GVA of Q3 of 2014 has been noticed.

Government Services

The nominal GVA contribution of the “Government Services” which includes the provision of public health, education and other miscellaneous services is estimated at 19.15 Bn QR in Q3 of 2014, which is 9% higher than the estimate [17.57 Bn QR] of Q3, 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimates, the GVA estimate has risen by 1.2%. The real GVA contribution of the “Government Services” is estimated at 11.60 Bn QR in Q3 of 2014, which is 8.7% higher than the estimate of Q3 of 2013 (10.68 Bn QR). Compared to the previous quarter (Q2, 2014) estimates; the GVA estimate has grown by 1.2%.

For more details on Quarterly GDP please refer to the Website: www.mdps.gov.qa and QALAM: www.qix.gov.qa. The next Press Release on Q4, 2014 GDP would be on 31stMarch, 2015.

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