Posted on September 30, 2014

Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) have released the preliminary estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current and constant prices for the second quarter (Q2) of 2014. The estimates have been produced by using the data collected through the Quarterly Economic Indicator Survey and from other source agencies.

Q2, 2014 Nominal & Real GDP Estimates

The quarterly GDP at current prices in the Q2 of 2014 is estimated at 189.65 Bn QR. This represents an increase of 6.6% compared to the estimate of Q2 of 2013 placed at 177.83 Bn QR. When compared to previous quarter [Q1 of 2014] estimate of 193.88 Bn QR, a decline of 2.2% has been noticed. The quarterly GDP in the Q2 of 2014, at constant (2004) prices [93.86 Bn QR] shows a growth of 5.7% compared to the estimate of Q2 of 2013 [88.80 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter [Q1 of 2014] estimate of 94.09 Bn QR, there has been a marginal decline of 0.2%.

Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas)

The nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) estimate of this sector in the Q2, 2014 has been 96.72 Bn QR, which shows  an increase of 0.8% over the estimate of Q2, 2013, placed at 95.96 Bn QR. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimate, there has been a decline of 6.3% in the GVA of this sector. The real GVA of this sector in Q2, 2014 [35.87 Bn QR], shows a decline of 2.2% over the estimate of Q2, 2013 [36.67 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimate, a fall of 2.5% has been seen in this quarter.

The receding crude oil production and some major maintenance shutdowns in Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) and Liquefied Natural Gases (LNG) plants primarily explain the decline in the production volume of this sector. Besides this, reduction in international price levels of crude oil in this quarter has led to a decline in nominal GVA of this sector, while the estimates are compared with previous quarter.

Non-Mining and Quarrying

The nominal GVA estimate of these sectors in the Q2, 2014 has been placed at 92.93 Bn QR, which shows an increase of 13.5% over the estimate of Q2, 2013 [81.87 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimate, there has been an increase of 2.5% in the GVA of these sectors. The real GVA of these sectors in Q2, 2014, totaled 57.99 Bn QR, which shows a growth of 11.3% over the GVA [52.13 Bn QR] estimated in the corresponding quarter [Q2] in  2013. The Q-o-Q growth of these sectors is 1.2%.

The Y-o-Y growth in the Q2, 2014 is the result of double digit rise seen mainly in electricity, construction, trading, hospitality and financial sectors, coupled with over 11.3% jump in the country’s population in Q2, 2014. Details of the sectorial level preliminary nominal and real GVA estimates in Q2 and Q1 of 2014 and Q2 of 2013 are available in the Tables 1 and 2 of the Press Release. An analysis by major industry groups, comparing the performance in Q2 of 2014 with the corresponding quarter (Q2) in 2013 [Y-o-Y Basis] and with first quarter (Q1) [Q-o-Q basis] of 2014 is given in the following paragraphs.

Manufacturing

The nominal GVA of manufacturing sector in Q2 of 2014 is estimated at 19.44 Bn QR showing an increase of 7.2% over the estimate of corresponding quarter of 2013 [18.14 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimate, an increase of 4.5% is noted. The real GVA of this sector is estimated at 8.54 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 showing a growth of 3.4% over the estimate [8.26 Bn QR] of corresponding quarter [Q2] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) GVA of this sector, there has been a growth of 2.9%. The higher volumes of production of Refined Petroleum products and basic chemicals have led this growth in the manufacturing sector.

Construction

The nominal GVA estimate of the construction at 10.55 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 shows an increase of 22.0% when compared to the estimate of corresponding quarter [Q2] of 2013 [8.65 Bn QR]. The real GVA of the construction sector at 12.24 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 shows a growth of 14.5% when compared to the GVA estimate [10.69 Bn QR] of the corresponding quarter [Q2] of 2013. This double digit rise is primarily due to rising production volume seen in this quarter. Major public investments in this sector continue to impact the growth in this sector. However due to seasonal factors, the estimate shows a fall of 2.9% when compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) both in nominal and real terms.

Quarterly Gross Domestic Product [qatarisbooming.com].jpgTrade, Hotel and Restaurants

The nominal GVA of this group is estimated at 11.56 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014 registering an increase of 11.1% over the GVA estimate [10.40 Bn QR] of the corresponding quarter [Q2] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimates, there has been a marginal decline of 0.3%. The real GVA of this sector is estimated at 7.48 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 recording a growth of 11.1% over the GVA estimate [6.74 Bn QR] of the corresponding quarter [Q2] of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) GVA estimate of 7.50 Bn QR, there has been a marginal decline of 0.2% in this sector. This Y-o-Y double digit rise in this group during Q2, 2014 has resulted from the high trading and hospitality activities, mainly due to rising population.

Transport and Communication

This sector generated a nominal value addition of 6.52 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 against 5.74 Bn QR in Q2, 2013 showing a rise of 13.6%. Compared to the previous quarter, Q1 of 2014, a decrease of 3.2% in the GVA estimate has been noticed in this group.

Real value addition in this sector has been 6.13 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 against 5.48 Bn QR estimated in Q2, 2013. It shows a growth of 11.8%. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimates; the GVA estimate has declined by 4.8%. Both transport and communication services have shown growth in this quarter on [Y-o-Y] basis, however, transport sector shows seasonal impact that explains the decline when comparison is made on [Q-o-Q] basis.

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services

The nominal GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 27.46 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014, showing an increase of 21.3%, (primarily due to rise in banking and real estate sectors) when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q2, 2013) estimate of 22.64 Bn QR. Compared to the previous quarter, Q1 of 2014, an increase of 4.7% in the GVA estimate has been recorded in this group. The real GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 13.07 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014, showing a growth of 16.6% when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q2) estimate of 11.21 Bn QR in 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014), a growth of 4.4% in the GVA of Q2 of 2014 has been noticed.

Government Services

The nominal GVA contribution of the “Government Services” which includes the provision of public health, education and other miscellaneous services is estimated at 18.92 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014, which is 10% higher than the estimate [17.20 Bn QR] of Q2 of 2013. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimates, the GVA estimate has risen by 2%. The real GVA contribution of the “Government Services” is estimated at 11.46 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014, which is 9.3% higher than the estimate of Q2 of 2013 (10.48 Bn QR). Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2014) estimates; the GVA estimate has grown by 2%.

Users are informed that consequent to the availability of the Annual Economic Survey results, the GDP estimates for the year 2012 have been updated. Accordingly, there has a revision in the quarterly estimates of GDP for the year 2013 and the first quarter of 2014.

For more details on Quarterly GDP please refer to the Website:  www.mdps.gov.qa and QALAM: www.qix.gov.qa. The next Press Release on Q3, 2014 GDP would be on 31st December, 2014.

click here to view the tables and figures

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