28 December 2019
We expect a modest acceleration of global GDP growth to around 3.4% in 2020 to be driven by easier monetary policy around the world, in particular the Fed’s dovish pivot to cutting interest rates....
16 November 2019
The global economy is sailing into headwinds, the most obvious of which is the trade war between the US and China. This has in-turn forced central banks across the world to ease monetary policy to...
10 November 2019
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to cut rates for the third time this year at its latest monetary policy meeting in October 29-30th. The target range for the benchmark fed funds rate was...
05 October 2019
The US-China is just act in the story of global competition for economic influence. The big picture is of shifting tides in geo-strategic politics from cold war (1950-90), to US dominance (1990-2010...
14 September 2019
Early this year, despite having highlighted a bleak picture for global growth and the persistence of political risks, we pointed out that emerging markets (EM) were set to enter 2019 on a more...
17 August 2019
Bond markets were particularly volatile in recent days. In fact, over the 72 hour period from July 30th to August 1st, market expectations about the future path of US policy rates fluctuated...
16 March 2019
A new wave of optimism has taken over the financial markets in recent weeks, driven by a more dovish Fed and positive rumors about a potential US-China trade deal. However, the upside for global...
09 March 2019
With a more dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) and positive developments in global trade disputes, emerging markets (EM) have benefited from a substantial recovery in risk sentiment. However, recent...
11 November 2017
There has been a flurry of central bank activity in recent weeks. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has signalled its intention to carry out the third hike of the year at its upcoming December meeting;...
20 August 2017
2017 was supposed to be a challenging year for emerging markets (EMs). An accelerated pace of Fed tightening, protectionism and political risks were among the prospective hurdles EMs would have to...
01 July 2017
On June 14th, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its policy rate for the second time this year as was widely anticipated. Less certain, however, was the path of future policy tightening in light...
25 December 2016
In terms of growth rates, the performance of the US economy in 2016 was mediocre. Growth is expected to have been 1.6%, below what most economists consider as potential (1.75%) and below the average...

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